信用热点事件系列：摊余定开债基开放，利好哪些品种？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds, and the spread of general credit bonds may decline. After the opening of these funds drives up the price of general credit bonds, the medium - and long - term cost - performance of secondary perpetual bonds will be passively improved, attracting medium - and long - term allocation funds such as annuities and insurance companies, with the market of secondary perpetual bonds lagging behind that of general credit bonds [2][26][27]. - The concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may form a strong allocation demand for 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds [20][30]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Changes in the Holding Varieties of Amortized Fixed - Term Open - End Bond Funds - Since the beginning of 2024, the proportion of interest - rate bonds (especially policy - financial bonds) held by amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds has significantly decreased, while the proportion of general credit bonds has increased substantially. From 2024Q1 - 2025Q3, the proportion of financial bonds held decreased from 89% to 78% (the proportion of policy - financial bonds decreased from 73% to 61%), and the proportion of credit bonds increased from 2% to 14% [8]. - The proportion of medium - term notes held by amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds has steadily increased. From the perspectives of implicit rating and remaining term, the proportion of credit bonds with an implicit rating of AAA - and above and a remaining term of 3 - 5 years has significantly increased. The proportion of medium - term notes increased from 43% in 2024Q1 to 61% in 2025Q3, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased, and the proportion of credit bonds with a remaining term of 1 year or less decreased from 80% in 2024Q3 to 30% in 2025Q3, while the proportion of 3 - 5Y credit bonds increased to 42% in 2025Q3 [11]. 2. Impact of the Concentrated Opening of Amortized Fixed - Term Open - End Bond Funds - From 2025Q4 - 2026Q2, a round of opening days for amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds will be concentrated. Among the funds with a closed - end period of more than 1 year, 76 funds will open, with a total fund asset value of 7,433 billion yuan. In 2026Q1 and before, 53 funds with a closed - end period of more than 1 year will open [14][15]. - The concentrated opening of these funds may form a strong allocation demand for 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. After the opening days end and the funds enter the closed - end period to start building positions, they may have a relatively strong demand for such bonds [20]. - In terms of variety structure, the concentrated opening may directly benefit general credit bonds, and it is expected that general credit bonds may experience a good spread compression market. The medium - and long - term cost - performance of secondary perpetual bonds will be passively improved, attracting allocation funds [26][27]. - It is estimated that the opening of existing amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds will bring about 119.8 billion yuan of stable allocation funds to the credit bond market, and the funds entering the opening period before 2026Q2 are expected to bring about 51.8 billion yuan [29]. 3. Investment Suggestions - From 2025Q4 - 2026Q2, the concentrated opening of amortized fixed - term open - end bond funds may directly benefit credit bonds matching their closed - end periods, especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds [30]. - The concentrated opening may directly benefit general credit bonds such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. High - grade (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future market [31][32].