2026年中药行业年度投资策略：“十五五”蓄势，基药目录待发

Core Insights - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to see revenue growth accelerate as companies clear channel inventory and benefit from lower raw material prices, leading to margin recovery [3][8] - As of Q3 2025, institutional holdings in the Chinese medicine sector have dropped to 0.20%, the lowest since 2021, indicating potential for increased capital inflow [3][16] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is at a low of 23.05, suggesting attractive valuation levels for investors [19] 2025 Review - Revenue growth for the Chinese medicine industry improved sequentially in Q1-Q3 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.1%, -2.3%, and -1.5% respectively [12] - The gross margin showed signs of recovery, with Q1-Q3 margins at 42.4%, 41.4%, and 40.4%, indicating a potential turning point due to falling raw material prices [12][28] - Over half of the companies in the sector managed to achieve positive net profit growth despite overall negative trends, highlighting effective cost management strategies [12][15] Key Indicators Tracking - The flu incidence rate has returned to normal levels, which may lead to revenue elasticity for companies with low channel inventory [25] - The price index for traditional Chinese medicine materials has declined, alleviating margin pressures for companies in the sector [28] - The institutional holding ratio in the Chinese medicine sector has decreased significantly, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [16] Policy Trends - The upcoming release of the revised National Essential Medicines List is expected to benefit companies with strong product and commercialization capabilities [34] - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Lingrui Pharmaceutical are anticipated to gain from their established sales channels and product offerings once included in the essential medicines list [34] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Dong'e Ejiao, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, and Yunnan Baiyao, which are seen as stable growth candidates with strong dividend yields [38] - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Huaren Sanjiu are identified as turnaround opportunities, with potential for performance recovery [38]