原木周报：恢复美国进口，规模存回升预期-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and inventory accumulation of radiata pine. The futures price is also in a weak state, and the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand has increased, and the recent arrival volume is large. Although the expected arrival volume in some periods has decreased, the overall import volume in October continued to decline and is at a low level over the years [4]. - The downstream demand for logs is weak. The daily average outbound volume of logs in ports has decreased, and the contradiction between high arrival pressure and weak downstream demand is prominent [5]. - There are many uncertainties in tariff and trade policies, which may affect the import and export of logs and the export of wood products. The lifting of the suspension of importing US logs may have limited short - term impact [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, both lower than the previous period. In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [4]. - Futures: As of November 12, the log main contract 2601 closed at 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, continuing the weak oscillation [4]. Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly increase of 8 vessels, and the total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, 12 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 4 fewer than last week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 395,000 cubic meters, 136,000 cubic meters less than last week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [4]. - From November 3 - 9, 2025, 16 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 531,000 cubic meters, 37,000 cubic meters more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase [4]. - In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a 12.4% year - on - year decrease [4]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week [5]. - The high arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. The inventory accumulation is expected to last until mid - November and may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [5]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from last week; that at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from last week [5]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. There is a risk of some log ships being stranded at Taicang Port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, and the risk of over - dependence on a single source is increasing [6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an indirect impact on the log futures market. The adjustment of the construction industry structure is beneficial to the log futures market sentiment [6]. - The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the US in May is beneficial to wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish [6]. - In July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days was extended again, and the uncertainty of China's wood product export costs remains [6]. - In October, there were news of various tariff changes, which may affect global trade directions [6]. - The EU and Mexico have taken anti - dumping measures against Chinese wood products [6]. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs since November 10, 2025, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited [6]. - The freight cost of Russian logs has increased, and the price of Russian logs has risen by 11% - 14% [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract in various regions was successful, and the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is considered a cost - effective delivery product [7]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery in multiple places, ensuring the stable operation of the market [7]. - Attention should be paid to the delivery of domestic cryptomeria in Chongqing for the 11 contract this week [7]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a 23.84% month - on - month increase and an 8.02% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a 3.75% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of November 4, the capital in - place rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, with a month - on - month increase. The capital in - place situation of real estate projects has improved, but the log demand side is still weak [7]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract was weak in the off - season of the second quarter and rose from July to August. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [8]. - The 2511 contract rose in September and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The demand in the traditional peak season this year was average, and the futures price quickly corrected after the holiday in October [8]. - The 2601 contract was relatively strong when the 2511 contract declined. Recently, it began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the log price is under pressure [8].