国内储能转变为IRR驱动，贝塔方兴未艾

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the energy storage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [9][7]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry in China is transitioning from a quantity-driven model to an IRR (Internal Rate of Return) driven model, with a focus on economic viability and system performance [2][21]. - The demand for independent energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections of new installations reaching 150.9 GWh in 2025, 204.4 GWh in 2026, and 287.0 GWh in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 36.8%, and 40.0% respectively [1][2]. - The cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China is projected to reach TWh levels by 2030, with a CAGR of over 30% from 2025 to 2030 [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The independent energy storage market is entering a rapid growth phase, driven by the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements and the introduction of market-driven mechanisms [16][21]. - The revenue model for independent storage includes capacity leasing, peak-valley arbitrage, and auxiliary services, which are becoming more diversified and market-oriented [16][19]. Section 2: Demand and Supply Potential - The current storage-to-renewable energy installation ratio in China is approximately 4%, indicating significant potential for growth compared to the 40-50% ratio in the US [1][2]. - The demand for peak regulation resources is expected to increase, with the overall peak regulation demand in the power system projected to reach 2065 GW by 2030 [51][53]. Section 3: Regional Insights - Certain provinces in China, such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, are leading in independent storage installations due to favorable capacity compensation mechanisms [23][24]. - The report highlights that regions with superior peak-valley price differences are gradually opening their spot markets, which will further stimulate the growth of independent storage [55][56]. Section 4: International Market Trends - The US market is expected to see significant growth, with large-scale storage installations projected to reach 50-60 GWh by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35% [3]. - The Middle East and European markets are also experiencing rapid growth, with new installations expected to reach 22-23 GWh and 29.7 GWh in 2025, respectively [3][3].