中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨多跌少，沪银领涨期市-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - Domestic Macro: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - Asset Views: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - Iron Ore: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - Manganese Silicon: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - Aluminum Oxide: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - Aluminum: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - Lead: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - Stainless Steel: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - LPG: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - Urea: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - PX: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - PTA: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - Short - Fiber: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - Bottle Chips: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - Propylene: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - PP: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - Plastic: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - Styrene: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - PVC: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - Pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Natural Rubber: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - Cotton: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - Pulp: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - Double - Glued Paper: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - Logs: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].