“十五五”深度研究系列报告（一）：如何实现中等发达国家的增长目标？

Group 1: Growth Targets - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-developed countries by 2035, with a target of exceeding $20,000[1] - To achieve this, an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% is required during the "14th" and "15th Five-Year" periods[2] - The per capita GDP in 2035 is projected to be over $20,000, which is below the developed country threshold of approximately $29,000[8] Group 2: Measurement Standards - Two parallel standards for measuring the growth target are established: exceeding $20,000 in nominal terms and doubling the per capita GDP from 2020 levels in real terms by 2035[6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recognizes 41 developed economies with a per capita GDP threshold of about $23,400, while China’s current per capita GDP is approximately $13,300[3] - The World Bank classifies 87 high-income economies, with a high-income threshold of $13,935, placing China in the upper-middle-income category[3] Group 3: Economic Context - The population is expected to decrease by about 0.20% annually by 2035, impacting GDP growth calculations[2] - The actual GDP growth rate needed to meet the target is estimated at 4.1%, which aligns closely with the stated 4.17%[7] - The classification of "middle-developed countries" is contextualized as a transitional goal rather than a benchmark within developed countries[8]