养殖亏损延续，猪价走势偏弱蛋鸡存栏微降，鸡蛋反弹遇阻

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices are generally under pressure and may continue a weak trend due to slow adjustment of reproductive sow capacity, significant growth in pig production capacity, high supply pressure, and potential increase in southern curing demand [4][6]. - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom because of continuous decline in chick sales, low replenishment enthusiasm, continuous increase in old - hen culling, a slight decrease in laying - hen inventory, high current laying - hen inventory, high supply pressure, and weak consumption [7][8]. Summary by Directory I. Pig 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of live pigs stopped falling after a low - level shock, and the spot price rebounded briefly and then declined again. The Zhengzhou outer ternary price dropped from 12,380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,800 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was close to the spot price [4]. 2. Breeding Situation - Pig farming is facing serious losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 89.21 yuan per head. Feed raw material prices were stable or rising, and the pig - grain ratio was 5.6, below the break - even line [4]. 3. Production Capacity - The adjustment of reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. At this pace, it will take nearly 3 years to complete the policy - required reduction of 1 million heads. The national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23% [4]. - From the perspective of large - scale farms, the adjustment progress is also slow. In September, the reproductive sow inventory of large - scale farms was 5.0421 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month. The number of piglet births increased slightly month - on - month, and the sales volume decreased. The inventory of commercial pigs increased month - on - month, and the proportion of fat pigs increased slightly [5]. 4. Demand - In October, the sales volume of commercial pigs from large - scale farms reached a new high in recent years. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. Downstream slaughter enterprises became profitable again, and the operating rate was stable and higher than the same period last year. As of November 7, the operating rate of 81 slaughter enterprises was 33.49%, a slight month - on - month increase. The southern curing demand may gradually increase [6]. II. Egg 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of eggs rebounded and then declined again. The spot price dropped, and the price of eggs in Xishui, the main producing area, decreased from 3,380 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was at a premium [7]. 2. Breeding Situation - Egg - chicken farming continues to be slightly loss - making. As of November 7, the national egg - chicken farming profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken. The loss cycle has lasted for nearly 9 months. In October, the chick sales volume was 35.88 million feathers, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years [7]. 3. Production Capacity - The culling of old hens continued to increase. In October, the culling volume of old hens at sample points was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. The laying - hen inventory decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time this year, but still increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The laying - hen inventory may decline seasonally in the fourth quarter [7][8]. 4. Consumption - Egg consumption is relatively stable and depends on festival consumption stimulation. After October, consumption was insufficient, and the egg sales volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [8].