股指期货早报2025.11.13：A股新平台内震荡-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the White House stated that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released. Before the lack of economic data, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time. Overnight, the risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market rebounded slightly, with the US dollar index basically flat, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rising slightly, gold rising, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up, the Nasdaq closing down, the S&P 500 closing flat, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciating slightly. Attention should be paid to the final result of the US government's temporary appropriation bill [1]. - Domestically, on Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.39%. The market showed a volatile adjustment trend. In the morning, banks and oil stocks pulled up the index, but individual stocks declined. In the afternoon, although the index rebounded, most individual stocks did not follow, showing an obvious atmosphere of following the decline but not the rise. The sectors of household appliances, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and medicine and biology led the gains, while power equipment, machinery and equipment, computers, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1,756 rising stocks and 3,561 falling stocks in the whole market. The rumor about the photovoltaic industry was later refuted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. Overall, the overnight US stock market trend indicates that market funds tend to be defensive, which has a neutral impact on A - shares. The Shanghai Composite Index is stronger at the broad - based index level, while others are weaker. The market divergence is not significant yet. The view remains unchanged, expecting the broader market to maintain a volatile tone in the range of 3,900 - 4,050, with a long - term slow - bull trend unchanged, and it may stay at this level for a long time in the short term. The strategy remains a dumbbell strategy, being long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time [4]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook on January 21 next year [4]. - The White House said that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement in February next year and re - emphasized his hawkish stance a few hours later. The market expects a dovish successor under Trump [5]. - Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins said the Fed is likely to keep interest rates at the current level for some time. The labor market has not deteriorated, and it is necessary to ensure that inflation can sustainably return to 2% before cutting rates [5]. - Anthropic will invest $50 billion in building a data center in the US [6]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the head of the National Committee on US - China Relations, stating that China and the US should jointly maintain and implement the important consensus and outcomes of the leaders' meetings and promote the stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will continue to extend the visa - free policy for Spain to facilitate personnel exchanges [7]. - The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy [8]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the online rumors are all false information [9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - For the Shanghai 50 Index, different contracts (IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606) showed different closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change rates. For example, IH2511 had a closing price of 3,044, a settlement price of 3,046.8, a price increase of 13.2, and a price increase rate of 0.32% [11]. - Similar data are provided for the CSI 300 Index (IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, IF2606), CSI 500 Index (IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, IC2606), and CSI 1000 Index (IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, IM2606) [11]. Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume, trading volume change, trading value, trading value change, open interest, open interest change, weekly position increase, net position, and changes in long and short positions of different contracts of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 was 54,075, with a change of 3,933, and the trading value was 493 billion yuan, with a change of 37 billion yuan [12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., showed different current points, daily price change rates, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and their changes. For example, the Wind All - A Index was at 6,354, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and its trading value was 19,648 billion yuan, a decrease of 490.72 billion yuan [35]. - Different sectors also had different performance, such as the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising by 0.84%, and the power equipment sector falling by 2.10% [35]. Market Style Impact on Index Fluctuations - Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, stability) had different impacts on the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual fluctuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. For example, in the Shanghai 50 Index, the cyclical style had a daily contribution of - 0.12% [36]. Index Valuation - The current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., are shown. For example, the price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.68, with a historical percentile of 94.46% [39]. - The valuations and historical percentile rankings of Shenwan sectors are also presented [42]. Other Market Indicators - Market indicators such as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and changes in index trading values are provided through graphs [44]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and SHIBOR interest rates (overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month) are presented through graphs [50].