Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for PTA is neutral [5]. - The investment rating for PX is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for ethylene glycol (MEG) is neutral, with a cautious - bearish view on the spread and supply, and a cautious - bullish view on processing profit [7]. Group 2: Core Views - PTA: Anticipation leads the way. With a relatively favorable pattern, funds show preference. Currently, PXN has rebounded to a relatively high level. Limited driving force under seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks [5]. - PX: The expected pattern is acceptable. PXN is stable and strong. Short - term valuation is not low. The outlook is positive. Consider low - buying on pullbacks [6]. - MEG: There is a slight increase in maintenance. Valuation is not high, but short - term supply is difficult to clear. In the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Spot: The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market is rather light. The spot basis is relatively stable. The offer in November is around 01 - 75, the bid is around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range is around 4590 - 4605 [5]. - Cost: The expected pattern of PX is not bad. PXN is stable and strong at around $245, and the valuation is not low [5]. - Device Changes: There are significant planned maintenance in November. Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1 are under maintenance. Honggang and YS Ningbo have maintenance plans [5]. - Downstream Demand: Demand has slightly weakened from the high level. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Sales volume has increased during the week. Polyester inventory pressure is not large. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. The estimated polyester operating rates for October and November are 91% and 90.5% [5]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The pressure from November to December is not large. Supply and demand are facing seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - Processing Profit: The PTA - Brent oil price spread is at a low level. PXN has reached over $240, which is not low. PTA processing fees remain at a low level [5]. PX - Spot: The negotiation of PX floating prices is deadlocked. There are sell - orders at +1 in the market for December, and it is estimated to be in the range of - 2/0 [6]. - Device Changes: The overall domestic PX load is close to the high level of 90%. One line of Fujia has restarted. Wushi Petrochemical, Weilian, and Sinochem Quanzhou have slightly increased their loads [6]. - Import: The Asian load is 80%. Thailand's PTTG has slightly reduced its load. Taiwan's FCFC device has restarted. Saudi Arabian devices are under maintenance [6]. - Downstream Demand: Demand orders are acceptable, but the marginal demand has slightly weakened. The weaving load remains stable. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Polyester inventory pressure is not large [6]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance pressure from November to December is not large. It is expected that there will be little pressure on PX before the first half of 2026 [6]. - Processing Profit: PXN is stable and strong. Currently, PXN is around $245 [6]. MEG - Spot: The negotiation in the MEG market is average. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The negotiation price is 3963 - 3965 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract is traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton [7]. - Device Changes: The domestic maintenance load of ethylene glycol has slightly decreased. The overall load is 72%, and the coal - chemical load is 72%. Shenghong is under maintenance. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical will restart in mid - November. Fude and Sinochem Quanzhou plan to conduct maintenance in December. Coal - based Yankuang is under maintenance. One line of Shaanxi Coal Yulin is under maintenance. Sinochem is under maintenance. Zhengdaikai plans to conduct maintenance for 10 days in mid - November. Henan Energy Puyang plans to restart in late November [7]. - Import: The port inventory is 660,000 tons. The expected arrival volume is not low, and inventory accumulation is expected next week. Overseas devices: Taiwan's Nan Ya is under maintenance. Malaysia's Petronas is shut down. Canada's Shell has restarted [7]. - Downstream Demand: The polyester load is 91.3%, indicating good demand. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 88%, 75%, and 80% respectively. Orders have slightly declined from the high level [7]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The inventory accumulation pressure in October is not large. The supply pressure from November to December is relatively large, and there is an increasing seasonal expected inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - Processing Profit: Prices have declined significantly. Oil - based production is in a loss, and coal - based production is on the verge of loss [7].
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Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-11-13 09:12