A股2026年策略展望：“小登”时代，牛途仍在

Group 1 - The current bull market, which began with the "924" rally in 2024, is still ongoing and has entered its second phase, shifting from sentiment-driven to fundamentals-driven [2][6][9] - Technology is the main theme for 2026, with a focus on applications such as AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [2][4][71] - The market is experiencing style rotation, with attention on previously lagging sectors like real estate, brokerage, and liquor consumption, suggesting a new logic for traditional dividend stocks [2][4][14] Group 2 - The bull market is characterized by three phases: nurturing, explosive, and frenzied, with the current phase being explosive, similar to the "519" market [5][6][9] - The recovery of corporate ROE and contract liabilities, along with upward revisions in profit expectations, indicate a solidifying fundamental backdrop for the market [2][10][11] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with a shift from long-term deposits to more liquid forms, supporting micro liquidity in the market [27][29][30] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant contribution of major technology stocks to the overall market performance, with 15 large-cap tech stocks accounting for a 10% increase in the total A-share market [2][67] - The "small登" assets have significantly outperformed "old登" assets, with a 189% increase in the "small登" stock portfolio since 2025, compared to just 2% for "old登" stocks [23][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Scaling Law" in AI development, indicating a robust demand for computational power and applications in the tech sector [101][105]