瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Overall, both the output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have fallen from their highs, and the fundamentals are mixed, causing the hot-rolled coil futures price to enter a range-bound consolidation. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have rebounded to near the 0-axis. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the position volume was 1,302,507 lots, a decrease of 8,957 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -52,146 lots, an increase of 7,583 lots; the HC1-5 contract spread was -9 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,606 tons, an increase of 12,063 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 56 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 148.9481 million tons, an increase of 3.5557 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2656 million tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.2 million tons, an increase of 4,300 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 80.13%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, a decrease of 641,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.359 million vehicles, an increase of 83,200 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 3.322 million vehicles, an increase of 95,600 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, an increase of 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, an increase of 1.653 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 13, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot-rolled coils this period was 3.1366 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons compared with the previous period; the factory inventory was 775,200 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the social inventory was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the total inventory was 4.1052 million tons, an increase of 700 tons; the apparent demand was 3.1359 million tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons compared with the previous week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 9, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 415,000 vehicles, a 19% decrease compared with the same period in November last year; the retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 265,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease compared with the same period in November last year [2]