CATL(SZ:300750) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 09:33Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable and slight increase in supply and rapid release of demand, with a slight reduction in industry inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column is converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 87,840 yuan/ton, up 1,260 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 185,604 hands, down 16,513 hands; the position of the main contract is 536,514 hands, up 7,548 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 1,220 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZEE is 27,508 hands/ton, down 779 hands [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,350 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,490 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 934 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,360 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 19,596.90 tons, down 2,250.01 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 151,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 164,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 156,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 35,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.58%, down 0.80%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 28.67%, down 1.27%; the total call position is 165,826 contracts, up 11,585 contracts; the total put position is 122,507 contracts, up 10,319 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 73.88%, up 1.1413%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.34%, up 0.0093% [2]. Industry News - All - solid - state batteries are expected to achieve technological breakthroughs and industrialization demonstration applications by around 2030. Zoubang plans to expand the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate. In October, the domestic power battery loading volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. CATL's fifth - generation lithium iron phosphate battery has been mass - produced, and the "Chocolate Battery Swapping Alliance" will build 1,000 swapping stations by the end of 2025. The scrapping growth cycle of new energy vehicles has not yet arrived [2].