瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is facing challenges with supply - side cost pressure and weak demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry. In the short - term, the polysilicon futures are rising due to yesterday's positive news, but the probability of a pull - back on Friday is increasing. It is recommended to lay out short positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,195 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan; the main position volume is 144,026 lots, up 3,409 lots. The basis between December and January for polysilicon is 100 yuan, up 80 yuan, and the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,050 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,310 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.29 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan, and the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,145 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 0 tons, and the monthly import volume is 1939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.91 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the work is progressing steadily, and rumors are false information. From the supply side, the dry season in Southwest China has increased power costs, squeezing polysilicon production profit margins, and some bases in Sichuan and Yunnan have cut production. From the demand side, the downstream photovoltaic industry demand is weak, component bidding prices are falling, and many projects are postponed or shelved [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. N - type silicon materials and ordinary materials are differentiated. N - type silicon materials maintain a premium due to the increasing penetration of TOPCon battery technology, while ordinary materials are close to the cost line [2]