——2026年中国宏观经济展望：底部夯实，亮点引领未来方向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - economy will consolidate its bottom. It will be a year of weak recovery, featuring export support, stable investment, and weak consumption. Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and a low - interest - rate environment continuing. In terms of asset allocation, stocks are preferred over commodities, and commodities over bonds [83]. - The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle from 2026, led by artificial intelligence, with new technologies evolving and being transformed into product advantages through China's industrial chain [84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - Industrial Production: Except for automobiles, the growth rate of major industrial products remains low. The increase in automobile production this year supports the growth of industrial added value. Next year, the growth rate of domestic automobile sales may decline, but the overall automobile industry will be supported by exports, and the growth rate of automobile industrial added value is likely to fall but not decline [6]. - Fixed - asset Investment: The decline in fixed - asset investment growth has accelerated, and it turned negative from January to September. In 2026, more powerful policies will be introduced to boost investment, and many projects postponed this year will start construction [9]. - Consumption: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons include weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and a low proportion of household disposable income in GDP [14]. - Inflation: The inflation situation will remain weak for a long time. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better. PPI faces downward pressure on production material prices, and the overall manufacturing scale keeps industrial product prices under long - term pressure [20]. - Employment: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market. The cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, and creating new jobs is becoming more difficult [26]. - Manufacturing PMI: Manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak. In the PMI sub - items, the sub - item of the purchase price of major raw materials is above the boom - bust line, and the sub - item of purchase volume fluctuates with the production sub - item, with a larger fluctuation range. Other sub - items are below the boom - bust line [30]. - Inventory: Production is significantly stronger than consumption, finished - product inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weaker [34]. - Construction and Service Industry PMI: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [38]. - Foreign Trade: The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. Exports are resilient, and China's share in global exports is increasing. New "new three items" (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are becoming new drivers of industrial upgrading and foreign trade growth [41][44]. - Chip Industry: The effect of chip import substitution has emerged in recent years. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and a complete Chinese chip industry chain independent of the US is rising. It is expected to become a net exporter in 5 - 10 years [46]. 3.2 Macro - economic Highlights - Automobile Industry: Automobile production, sales, and exports will reach new highs this year. Although the growth rate of domestic sales may face pressure due to the withdrawal of subsidies, it may be maintained with the launch of new technologies and models. This year's automobile exports are expected to reach 750 - 800 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth of about 18%, and the growth rate of overseas exports is expected to remain at a good level next year [51]. - Industrial Enterprise Profits: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size has rebounded. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20%. With the implementation of "anti - involution" policies and interest - rate cuts, enterprise profits are expected to improve [54]. - Stock Market and Economy: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI may also turn positive, indicating a possible bull market in both stocks and commodities. "Anti - involution" may end the decline of PPI. The growth rate of M1 is basically synchronous with the rise of the stock market [57]. - Real Estate: The data reflecting the scale of ongoing real estate projects has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - building. The new housing start - up area may gradually stabilize, and there is a possibility of a retaliatory rise in housing prices in the future [60]. - Stock Market and Asset Allocation: There is still room for "deposit migration". The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is low, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun. A bull market can stimulate economic growth, assist economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [63][64]. - Technological Progress and Stock Market: Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots are likely to be first applied in China. The chip industry is the last major short - board before China becomes a technological superpower. Technological innovation and manufacturing are the core of the "14th Five - Year Plan", and new technologies will promote productivity and expand industrial chain advantages [65]. 3.3 Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal Policy: The government's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is room for further leverage. Loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form for 2 - 3 years, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will also be taken [69]. - Monetary Policy: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money supply will remain loose with room for further decline in interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cuts provide space for China's central bank to cut interest rates, and domestic commercial banks have already lowered deposit rates [71][82]. - Exchange Rate Policy: The US dollar has opened up a downward space, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus. Overseas hot money is flowing into China, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The RMB's share in international trade is increasing [77][79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - Economic Outlook: In 2026, the macro - economy will be in a weak recovery. Real estate investment will gradually stabilize, infrastructure investment growth will pick up, and exports will maintain a high growth rate. Policy will remain positive, and consumption will be a lagging variable [83]. - Economic Cycle: The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle, with artificial intelligence leading the way, and new technologies being transformed into product advantages [84]. - Risk Analysis: In 2026, there may be new Sino - US trade frictions, the risk of the bursting of the US artificial intelligence bubble and its spill - over effects, and the risk of a significant correction in the Chinese stock market due to high valuations [85].