南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a clear bullish trend based on multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand factors. However, considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant about the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [4]. - On the supply side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrate arrivals this month can ease the tight situation in the lithium ore market. The release of salt lake production capacity will continue to supplement the lithium salt supply, and the resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - On the demand side, the current demand is strong. The prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, reflecting the market's demand for lithium carbonate. The high - production schedule in November will maintain strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. From the perspective of national industrial policies, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may boost the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and support prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Price and Volume Indicators: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,260 yuan (1.46%) and a weekly increase of 7,340 yuan (9.12%). The trading volume is 1,106,011 lots, a daily decrease of 39,318 lots (-3.43%) but a weekly increase of 523,978 lots (90.03%). The open interest is 536,514 lots, a daily increase of 7,548 lots (1.43%) and a weekly increase of 64,531 lots (13.67%) [7]. - Price Interval Forecast: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.6% and a historical percentile of 59.6% over three years [2]. - Lithium Carbonate Term Structure and Spread: The report also presents the term structure of lithium carbonate, as well as the seasonal spreads of LC01 - 03, LC01 - 05, and LC03 - 05 [11][12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average daily prices of various lithium ores are rising. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan (1.13%) and a weekly increase of 160 yuan (7.67%) [23]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 82,000 yuan/ton and 84,350 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 900 yuan (1.11%) and 1,050 yuan (1.26%) [26]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads: The current values of spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [30]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Data: The report shows the basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands [34][36]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 27,508 lots, a decrease of 779 lots from the previous day. The warehouse receipt quantities of different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided [39]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production and Import Profits: The report presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [41][43]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - Procurement Management: For enterprises planning to produce battery materials in the future and worried about rising lithium carbonate prices, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling put options (LC2601 - P - 73000, 20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - Sales Management: For enterprises planning to produce lithium carbonate and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and using option combination strategies, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% - 20% [2]. - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and relevant options, with recommended hedging ratios of 10% - 20% [2].