南华期货工业硅、多晶硅企业风险管理日报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the pressure on the supply side will gradually ease marginally. The industry is still in a stage of wide - range weak oscillation, and there is no significant driving force at present [4]. - Polysilicon: The short - term trading main line of the polysilicon market revolves around whether the November storage platform will be established, and then will gradually shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The overall risk level is relatively high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Core Logic: On the supply side, the low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is about to end, and the furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will be alleviated. On the demand side, the demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field is stable, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises is expected to decrease [4]. - Likely Positive Factors: The "anti - involution" policy releases a positive signal, and the short - term downward space of the cost side is limited, with a relatively low profit valuation [4][5]. - Likely Negative Factors: The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises has declined, weakening the demand side [5]. - Futures Data: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 9145 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.54% and a weekly increase of 0.88%. The trading volume and open interest have increased to varying degrees [9]. - Spot Data: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly increases. The prices of downstream products such as trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index have also shown little change [16]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 45387 lots, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous day. The warehouse receipt inventories in various delivery warehouses have also changed to varying degrees [27]. Polysilicon - Core Logic: The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price are whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November, whether the winning bid price of demand - side components can rise stably, and whether the photovoltaic competitive - bidding on - grid electricity price can increase. The current market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [7]. - Likely Positive Factors: The industry may introduce a production capacity integration and clearance plan, which is expected to improve the industrial pattern if implemented [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: If the production capacity integration and clearance plan fails to be implemented, inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [8]. - Futures Data: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 54195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The trading volume of the main contract has decreased, while the open interest has increased [28]. - Spot Data: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry chain have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly decreases [41][43]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data: The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 49.00% and a weekly increase of 60.22%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous day [53]. Silicon Industry Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - Selling Industrial Silicon: To prevent price decline and profit reduction, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 20%) [2]. - Purchasing Industrial Silicon: When the finished product price has no correlation, to prevent cost increase, enterprises can buy corresponding futures contracts (hedging ratio: 20%) or sell put options (hedging ratio: 10%); when the finished product price is correlated, to prevent inventory impairment, enterprises can sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 40%) [2]. - Inventory Management: To prevent inventory depreciation, enterprises can sell the main futures contract (hedging ratio: 40%) or sell call options (hedging ratio: 10%) [2].