债市专题研究：日本股债回顾与启示

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Japanese bond yield broke below 2%, it remained in a long - term low - level oscillation. The weak economic reality restricted the upward movement of the yield, but there were still significant obstacles to further decline. The Japanese stock market, on the other hand, experienced a long - bull market due to factors such as positive macro - economic expectations, improved corporate micro - profitability, and the support from the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory 1. Japan's Stock and Bond Review and Insights ➢ Japanese Bonds: Long - term Oscillation after Breaking below 2% - 1990 - 2018 Phases: From 1990 to 1998, the 10 - year Japanese bond yield was in a downward period, dropping from over 8% to 0.77%. From 1999 to 2008, it was in an oscillation period, fluctuating around a 1.5% central level. From 2008 to 2018, under continuous and substantial monetary policy easing, the yield steadily declined and remained in a low - level oscillation. Since 2018, as Japanese monetary policy gradually normalized, the bond's elasticity increased, and the yield moved from a long - term zero - interest state to positive interest [10]. - 1998 - 1999: Fiscal adjustment and the Asian financial crisis led to a significant deterioration of the Japanese economy. The Bank of Japan cut interest rates, causing the 10 - year Japanese bond yield to break below 2% in October 1997 and reach a low of 0.77% in October 1998. Subsequently, due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of national bonds (the government's large - scale fiscal expansion increased bond issuance, while the main buyer, the Ministry of Finance's Fund Management Bureau, suspended bond purchases), the yield quickly rebounded to 2.43% [13][14][19]. - 2002 - 2003: The Japanese government adopted fiscal austerity while the central bank implemented loose monetary policies. The 10 - year Japanese bond yield started a new downward trend in February 2002 and reached a low of 0.43% in June 2003. After 2002, the global economic recovery improved Japan's economic outlook, and the yield rebounded. The sell - off by commercial banks using the VAR model accelerated the bond market's adjustment, with the yield rising by nearly 120BP from June to September 2003 [20][22][23]. ➢ Japanese Stocks: Long - Bull Trend after 2013 - After hitting a historical high in 1989, the Japanese stock market entered a long - term correction. In 2013, it started a new long - bull market, reaching a new high in February 2024. As of the end of October 2025, the Nikkei 225 index was at 52,411.34 points, a cumulative increase of 512.27% compared to the beginning of 2012 [28]. - Abenomics was an important catalyst for the rise of the Japanese stock market. In 2013, the Abe cabinet launched a 20.2 - trillion - yen economic stimulus package, the Bank of Japan introduced the QQE policy, and the government launched the "Japan Revitalization Strategy". Multiple factors such as positive macro - economic expectations, the development of high - tech industries, and the support from the central bank led to a double - whammy of improved corporate profitability and valuation, driving the long - bull market [31][32].