Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.23%, and the volume increased while the position decreased. The supply of rebar has shrunk to a low level, but the demand has also weakened. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. However, the low valuation and cost support are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coils fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the volume and position decreased. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot-rolled coils have weakened, and the industrial contradictions have been alleviated limitedly. The coil price continues to be under pressure, and the relative benefit is that the cost still has support. The subsequent trend will continue the low-level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the volume and position decreased. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level recovery of the ore price, but the demand for ore has weakened, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to weaken under pressure under the guidance of the real logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.2% year-on-year. By the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, etc. [7]. - State-owned shipbuilding enterprises have received more than 30 orders. Dalian Shipbuilding, in cooperation with CSSC Trading, has signed orders for 2 + 2 7100TEU container ships with Vietnam's Hai An Green Shipping Company, etc. [8]. - India's largest iron ore producer, NMDC, announced its performance for the third quarter of 2025. Although the iron ore sector declined quarter-on-quarter due to the monsoon season, it maintained steady year-on-year growth. In the third quarter, the iron ore production was 10.21 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14% and a year-on-year increase of 23%; the sales volume was 10.72 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,170, 3,210, and 3,237 respectively; the spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,270, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, etc. [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,046, with a rise of 0.23%, the trading volume was 885,545, and the open interest was 1,857,343; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,254, with a decline of -0.12%, the trading volume was 332,809, and the open interest was 1,302,507; the closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 772.5, with a rise of 0.26%, the trading volume was 215,756, and the open interest was 494,127 [12]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including port inventory, seasonal inventory, etc.), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate, electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][27]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 85,400 tons month-on-month, and the supply has shrunk to a low level, but the demand has also weakened. The fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [36]. - Hot-rolled coils: The supply and demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 45,000 tons month-on-month, and the supply has shrunk but is still at a relatively high level. The demand has also weakened, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the low-level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [36]. - Iron ore: The supply and demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for ore has continued to decline, and the supply remains at a high level. The ore price is still prone to weaken under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [37].
钢材&铁矿石日报：现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡-20251113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-13 10:36