瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply - side pressure is small due to limited imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but demand is weakening as aquaculture demand declines and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9975 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 646.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 63 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 237907 lots, up 15923 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 479461 lots, up 10597 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5630 lots, up 3174 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 33514 lots, down 2339 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 5323 sheets, down 50 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 2745 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10260 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; and that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10353.75 yuan/ton, up 126.25 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7971.47 yuan/ton, up 15.44 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 285 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1690 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 tons, down 0.5 tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 tons, down 0.21 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 42.42 tons, down 5.38 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 25.45 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.8 tons, down 0.6 tons; and the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.8 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.31 tons, down 0.53 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.19 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods for catering is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.49 percentage points; and that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.18%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.97%, down 1.51 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.38%, up 0.23 percentage points; and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.25%, down 0.62 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 12, 2025, ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, with the January contract up 1.90 Canadian dollars to 647.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre, which supports the U.S. soybean market and benefits the domestic meal market through cost transmission. However, the recent rise of U.S. soybeans has slowed down [2]. - Sino - Canadian trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is restricted by trade policies and oil - mill shutdowns, while demand is weakened by the decline of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2].