ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-11-13 10:34Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][27]. Core Viewpoints - The new upward cycle in the coal industry has been confirmed, with the profitability of thermal coal improving faster than that of coking coal [9]. - The current coal market is characterized by a clear trend of price recovery, with significant narrowing of year-on-year declines [9][13]. - The financial performance of the coal sector has shown substantial improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with revenue, profit, and operating cash flow all increasing [7][19]. Price Dynamics - Spot prices for thermal coal have shown a clear rebound trend, with the average price in Q3 being 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [5]. - Coking coal prices averaged 1562 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [5]. - Long-term contract prices for thermal coal averaged 669 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][17]. Production and Sales - There is a notable divergence in the production and sales of self-produced coal among listed companies, with some companies like Yongtai Energy showing a significant increase in production (up 8.2% year-on-year) while others like Lanhua Sci-Tech saw a drastic decline (down 69.8% year-on-year) [6][19]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal has decreased year-on-year across the board, with the lowest decline seen in Lu'an Huaneng (down 5.7%) and the largest in Yongtai Energy (down 34.1%) [6]. Financial Performance - The coal sector's revenue decreased by 11.1% year-on-year but increased by 12.1% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal showing the smallest year-on-year decline of 6.7% [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.0% year-on-year but rose by 21.3% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal experiencing a smaller decline of 16.3% year-on-year [7]. Holdings and Market Position - Fund holdings in the coal sector increased to 0.65% in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.10 percentage points [8]. - China Shenhua holds the largest market value in coal sector holdings, while Lu'an Huaneng has shown the highest growth in holding value [8][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively allocating resources in the coal sector, highlighting stocks such as Yancoal, Shanxi Coal International, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry as having strong potential [8].