Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 10:31Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [3] Group 2: Core View - The lead supply may increase but is difficult to rise significantly The demand from lead - acid battery enterprises is recovering, but the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream procurement is cautious The lead ingot inventory may change, and the Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside height It is recommended to short on rallies and lay out short positions at high prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,092 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The Shanghai lead open interest is 128,847 lots, up 1,473 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,218 lots, down 271 lots The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 25,824 tons, up 1,138 tons The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons The LME lead inventory is 225,225 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan The spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 23.9 dollars/ton, down 3.01 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points The weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton The global lead mine output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons The lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan The average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,725 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The output of automobiles is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons The output of new energy vehicles is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,179.75 points, down 62.93 points [3] 6. Industry News - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook The White House says October non - farm and inflation data may not be released Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February and reaffirmed a hawkish stance New York Fed President Williams said the time to restart bond purchases is approaching [3] 7. View Summary - Supply growth is limited due to smelter overhauls and environmental protection measures Demand is supported by the traditional peak season and battery companies' expansion but is suppressed by export pressure and cautious procurement The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level but may change The Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside It is recommended to short on rallies [3]