Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 10:31Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: The harvest of US corn is almost finished, leading to high short - term supply pressure. Analysts expect the USDA's upcoming report to lower the US corn yield estimate. The recent rise in US soybeans and wheat prices provides external support to US corn prices. In the domestic market, cold weather in the Northeast and North China has increased farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the available grain supply and causing a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - Starch: With the increasing supply of new - season corn, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch market has oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,507 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) data not fully presented. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) decreased by 5,839 hands, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) decreased by 71 hands. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch decreased by 5,1472 hands, and that of corn decreased by 120,537 hands. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 2999 hands, and those of corn starch are 69,337 hands [2]. Outer - Plate Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 435.5 cents per bushel, and the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn decreased by 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,259.8 yuan/ton, down 4.98 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,510 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton respectively. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,033.17 yuan/ton, down 2.77 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 20 yuan/ton, and that of the corn main contract is - 4.3 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 295 million hectares, etc. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 74.2 million tons, 122 million tons, and 279.5 million tons respectively. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 113.3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last week. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,128.7 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 36 yuan/ton, 105 yuan/ton, and 38 yuan/ton respectively. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 66.79%, down 1.63 percentage points, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.33%, down 0.26 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.81%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of corn is 7.99%, up 1.43 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending November 6, 2025, to be between 1 million and 2 million tons. - Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains his forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 corn output at 14 million tons with a neutral outlook [2]. Key Points of Concern Follow the weekly corn consumption data and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].