苹果产业日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current late - Fuji apple inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. As the situation is gradually reflected in the market, price fluctuations are intensifying. In the short - term, it is advisable to buy long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 297 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 9,504 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,167 hands, a decrease of 1,510 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged 75 and above) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged 75 and above) is 2.3 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged 70 and above semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 3.5 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.49 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 7.6424 yuan/kg, the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 65.82 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.51, the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.03, the monthly apple export quantity is 70,000 tons, the monthly apple export amount year - on - year is - 8.5%, the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 18.3798 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.66 yuan/kg, bananas is 5.36 yuan/kg, and watermelons is 5.39 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2 vehicles, at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 17 vehicles, and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.57%, a decrease of 0.72%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.57%, a decrease of 0.72% [2] Industry News - As of November 13, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7.6424 million tons, 0.9054 million tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 51.27%, an increase of 10.24% from last week, and in Shaanxi is 59.64%, an increase of 2.63% from last week. The ground trading of new - season late - Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the storage progress in Gansu has basically ended, in Shaanxi is coming to an end, while in Shandong, a large amount of fruit farmer's goods are still being stored [2]