Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 10:31Report Overview - The report is a sugar industry daily report dated November 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The current sugar market has no significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October. The new sugar - cane crushing season may be delayed, providing some sales opportunities for old - stock sugar. Brazil's sugar exports increased in October, but the supply pressure remains, and exports are expected to decrease seasonally as the current crushing season nears its end. The domestic market is less affected by price drops due to import quotas and policies [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 381,667 lots, up 8,683 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,721, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,947 lots, up 14 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1,183, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,947 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,002 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4,996 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,068 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning it was 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangxi Liuzhou it was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production nationwide was 1,588 million tons, up 28 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The cumulative sales volume of cane - sugar in Guangxi was 1116.21 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative production of cane - sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports in October were 420.5 million tons, up 26.66 million tons. The cumulative sugar imports were 316 million tons, up 55 million tons. The difference between the imported Thai sugar price and the Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,533 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff) it was 467 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The difference between the imported Brazilian sugar price and the Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 539 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons. The monthly production of soft drinks was 1,591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.61%, up 0.34%; that of at - the - money put options was 7.61%, up 0.33%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.24%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.72%, down 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicted that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 1,170 million tons, 50 million tons higher than last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Sugar consumption was predicted to be 1,570 million tons, 20 million tons lower than last month's forecast. ICE's most actively traded March raw - sugar futures rose 0.27 cents, or 1.89%, to settle at 14.52 cents per pound on Wednesday, driven by short - covering [2]