银河期货油脂日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - After a significant decline, the prices of edible oils have stabilized and are experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, palm oil lacks a clear driving force, and its expected increase is limited. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it is expected to remain range - bound. Rapeseed oil is in a continuous process of marginal inventory reduction, which supports its price [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: Soybean oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8586, 8626, and 8496 respectively, with basis values of 310, 270, and 180. Palm oil spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8702, 8772, and 8862 respectively, with basis values of - 50, 20, and 110. Rapeseed oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 10335 and 10475 respectively, with basis values of 360 and 500 [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 222 (down 2), for palm oil is - 102 (down 12), and for rapeseed oil is 491 (up 41) [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 436 (down 107), the OI - Y spread is 1659 (up 20), the OI - P spread is 1223 (up 127), and the oil - meal ratio is 2.71 (down 0.001) [3] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a disk profit of - 105, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil has a disk profit of - 913 [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventory of Edible Oils (2025 Week 45): Soybean oil inventory is 115.7 million tons, palm oil is 59.7 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 45.5 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In October 2024, India's palm oil imports were 602381 tons (down from 833017 tons in September). The 2024/25 palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons (down from 9.01 million tons last year), and its proportion in India's vegetable oil imports dropped below 50% for the first time. Soybean oil imports in October were 454619 tons (down from 549240 tons in September), and the 2024/25 imports were 5.47 million tons (up from 3.44 million tons last year). Sunflower oil imports in October were 260548 tons (down from 275386 tons in September), and the 2024/25 imports were 2.94 million tons (down from 3.5 million tons last year). India's vegetable oil imports in October were 1.33 million tons (down from 1.66 million tons in September), and the 2024/25 imports are expected to be 16.36 million tons (up from 16.23 million tons last year) [5] - Domestic Market: As of November 7, 2025 (Week 45), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.73 million tons, a 0.76% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and the basis is stable. The soybean oil inventory was 115.72 million tons, a 4.82% decrease from last week. The inventory inflection point may have arrived, and the basis is stable. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 45.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.9 million tons, and it is in a continuous process of marginal inventory reduction. The basis is firm [6][7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider short - term long positions on dips for palm oil or continue to wait and see. For soybean oil, wait for a pull - back to stabilize before lightly testing long positions. For rapeseed oil, consider going long on dips for the OI03 or 05 contracts [6][7][9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11]