点石成金：白银：金银计量美元内在价值流失

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and irreversible decline of the US dollar's intrinsic value, including the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and coercive force. The rise of gold and silver prices represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and this upward trend has an inherent logical continuity [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Condition - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver hit a new high. The domestic price reached 12,500 yuan per kilogram, and Comex silver was close to $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there was a new logic that silver might become the "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US. The short - term trigger might be the news of the US government's vote to end the shutdown, while the long - term trend has stable driving factors [2]. Traditional Gold Analysis Framework and Its Break - Before 2024, the discussion of gold prices mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. In the context of relatively stable total liquidity, US Treasury bond yields are the cost of holding gold, so higher yields suppress gold prices. In the stage of loose liquidity, investment institutions may increase their holdings of both gold and US Treasury bonds, leading to an inverse relationship between gold prices and US Treasury bond yields [2]. - Since 2022, the Fed's interest rate hikes have led to an increase in real interest rates and a short - term adjustment in gold prices. As US inflation rises, dollar - denominated assets tend to be bubble - like, and the credit of US Treasury bonds is questioned. Governments' reserve adjustment operations may involve selling US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) and buying gold. This has led to a situation where gold prices are strong and US Treasury bond yields are rising, breaking the traditional analysis framework [3]. US Dollar's Intrinsic Value and Its Loss - Gold has a strong currency attribute. It is mainly denominated in US dollars, and at the same time, it measures the intrinsic value of the US dollar. The historical rise of gold prices actually represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [3]. - The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline in recent years. The internal purchasing power can be measured by CPI growth, and the external purchasing power has declined due to factors such as resource protectionism in South America, the decline of US influence on energy prices, and trade conflicts. However, the US dollar index has remained relatively stable, which is due to the currency illusion caused by the foreign exchange pricing system. The US dollar index is a relative indicator, while gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [4][6]. - The US dollar is a credit currency, and its credit is based on its coercive force in the global scope, which is supported by military, political, diplomatic, and economic capabilities. Since 2018, the decline of its coercive force globally is an important background for the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [7]. Historical Preference for Precious Metals - According to Keynes' theory, gold and silver as metallic currencies have a long - standing place in people's minds, and only in a few periods of "intellectually stubborn laissez - faire" could people get rid of their dependence on gold and silver [8].