OPEC下调原油需求预估，油价遭受重挫

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC has adjusted its forecast for the global oil market in the third quarter from a supply shortage to a supply surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased supply from the organization itself. There is a need to be vigilant about the impact of the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, 2025, WTI and Brent futures prices rebounded significantly, with WTI closing at $60.99 per barrel (previous day $59.53), a gain of 2.45%, and Brent at $65.09 per barrel (previous day $63.57), a gain of 2.39%. SC crude oil prices fell slightly to 458.8 yuan per barrel (previous day 460.4 yuan). The SC - Brent spread changed from $1.08 per barrel to - $0.66 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from $5.12 per barrel to $3.44 per barrel, indicating the relative weakness of domestic SC crude oil compared to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.1 per barrel (previous day $4.04), suggesting tighter supply - demand in the European market [2]. b. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - Supply: Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October remained at 7.8 million tons, showing supply resilience. Chevron plans to increase production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030, and the possible restart of oil drilling leases off the California coast in the US may lead to a marginal loosening of long - term supply. However, short - term disruptions remain, such as the UK's plan to restrict LNG export services to Russia from 2026 and the potential impact of the non - approval of Lukoil's sanction waiver extension [3]. - Demand: Refinery demand is differentiated. Japan's refinery operating rate dropped slightly to 90.6% (previous week 91.4%), and the decrease in US gasoline inventory slowed, indicating a marginal slowdown in demand. Indian state - owned refiners' procurement of Russian ESPO crude shows support in Asian spot demand, and the US strategic petroleum reserve's purchase of 1 million barrels reflects clear policy support [4]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels (previous value + 6.52 million barrels), with a slower inventory build - up but still at a high level. Product inventories decreased, reflecting seasonal demand shifts. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 354,000 liters to 10.38 million liters, but gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, showing a differentiated terminal replenishment rhythm [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC adjusted its third - quarter global oil market forecast from a shortage to a surplus, with a supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. There is a need to be vigilant about the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6]. 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.61% to 466.2 yuan per barrel, WTI fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, and Brent fell 3.63% to $62.73 per barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while some other spot prices had slight fluctuations. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all changed, with significant increases in SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads. - Inventory: US commercial crude, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased. US refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and crude processing volume increased slightly [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.82% to 2,693 yuan per ton, LU rose 1.50% to 3,311 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil fell 4.28% to 247.13 cents per gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased slightly, while others remained unchanged. - Spreads: Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, with an increase in the Chinese high - low sulfur spread [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were 7.804 million tons, similar to September. Chevron plans to increase oil and gas production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030. Indonesia expects an oil production of about 607,000 barrels per day in 2025. The Trump administration may open the California coast for oil drilling leases [10][11]. b. Demand - Indian state - owned refiner Indian Oil Corporation plans to purchase Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year [12]. c. Inventory - US API inventories showed changes in various products, with a decrease in some and an increase in others. The US Energy Department purchased about 1 million barrels of crude for the strategic petroleum reserve. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased [13][14]. d. Market Information - Lukoil applied to the US Treasury for an extension of the trading deadline. UK's BP is in talks to sell Castrol. UK plans to ban services for Russian LNG exports from 2026. Crude - related futures prices fell significantly [15].