铜供给收紧叠加宏观分歧，偏强运行格局延续

Group 1: Report's Core View - Copper supply tightening and macro differences lead to a continued strong - running pattern. The market will likely stay within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term. Supply - side factors and overseas demand weakness put pressure on prices, while China's electromechanical industry provides support [1][3] Group 2: Day - to - Day Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, LME copper price dropped slightly to $10,840/ton. SHFE's main contract closed at 86,490 yuan/ton on November 11 with intensified intraday fluctuations. Spot premium and discount diverged, with the premium of premium copper expanding to 120 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper shrinking to 5 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper widening to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to - 21.28 dollars/ton. LME copper open interest increased to 324,358 lots on November 11, COMEX inventory rose significantly to 376,631 short tons, and SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 136,250 tons, with overall inventory pressure remaining [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: Global copper supply is expanding. US industrial metal inventory soared from 83,900 tons in February to over 335,000 tons, driven by the price difference between the US and Europe. Southeast Asian countries' stricter origin rules may increase China's re - export trade costs in the short term but may accelerate local industrial chain layout in the long run [2] - Demand: China's electromechanical product exports and motor industry upgrading support copper consumption, but high US inventory and the expanding LME discount imply weak overseas demand. Domestic procurement and sales sentiment has slightly improved, but the Contango structure of inter - month spreads and import losses suppress import demand [2] - Inventory: LME inventory dropped to 42,964 tons on November 12, but COMEX inventory reached a new high for the year. With the inflow pressure on US delivery warehouses, global visible inventory remains at a high level [2] Market Summary - Supply - side factors such as the sharp increase in US inventory and Southeast Asian trade policy disturbances suppress prices. Demand - side, the resilience of China's electromechanical industry provides support, but weak overseas demand and the inflow of macro - arbitrage funds into the delivery system intensify selling pressure. The market will likely run within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Indicator | November 12, 2025 | November 11, 2025 | November 6, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 copper (spot) | 87,010 | 86,950 | 86,610 | 60 | 0.07% | yuan/ton | | Premium copper | 115 | 120 | 115 | - 5 | - 4.17% | yuan/ton | | Flat - water copper | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - process copper | - 55 | - 55 | - 50 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 15 | 7 | 33.74% | dollars/ton | | SHFE |86,680 | 86,750 | 86,490 | - 70 | - 0.08% | yuan/ton | | LME | 10,897 | 10,840 | 10,875 | 57 | 0.53% | dollars/ton | | LME inventory | 44,088 | 42,964 | 43,789 | 1,124 | 2.62% | tons | | SHFE inventory | 136,250 | 136,250 | 136,275 | 0 | 0.00% | tons | | COMEX inventory | 378,303 | 376,631 | 372,304 | 1,672 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] Group 4: Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][11]