纯苯，苯乙烯周报2025/11/12：BZ：供需错配EB：等待底部-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral to bearish [4] - The investment rating for styrene is also neutral to bearish [6] 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Supply: This week, the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly, with supply rising and significant domestic supply pressure. There are few planned maintenance activities, and future supply is expected to remain at a high level. Ship reports indicate a large number of arrivals in the first 10 days of November, and the overall import volume in November is expected to be high [4] - Demand: The main downstream product, styrene, has low profit margins, leading to many planned future maintenance activities. The overall operating rate of downstream industries has declined again, and demand is expected to remain low in the short term [4] - Inventory: With a large number of incoming ships, port inventory is expected to accumulate in November [4] - Valuation: The BZN spread is low, indicating that the valuation of pure benzene is low [4] - Outlook: There is a mismatch between supply and demand for pure benzene, but the improving gasoline blending demand in Europe and the United States may provide some support. Future demand for pure benzene is expected to be weak, and combined with high supply, the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the short term. OPEC+ has announced a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year, and a potential inflection point may occur in the first quarter of next year [4] Styrene - Supply: Due to a large number of maintenance activities, both the operating rate and production of styrene have declined, and the overall future supply is expected to be low [6] - Demand: The overall downstream demand has decreased, and the overall operating rate has declined. There are new PS installations in operation, and new ABS installations may come online in mid - November. The finished product inventory pressure in downstream industries remains, and demand is expected to recover slowly [6] - Inventory: With many styrene maintenance activities, overall inventory is expected to decrease in November [6] - Valuation: The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating that the valuation of styrene is low [6] - Outlook: Styrene supply has tightened significantly, and inventory may decrease in November. Considering the overseas gasoline blending support for pure benzene, styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Some far - month spreads have reached a risk - free level, which is worth attention [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The operating rate of pure benzene has been at a high level, and the supply is abundant. There were new maintenance activities at Zhongyuan Ethylene last week. Looking at the annual data, the supply situation is relatively stable, with the total supply in 2025 ranging from 252.88 to 280.26 million tons in different months [4][14][50] - Many enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc., with some having undetermined restart times [15] Demand - The overall operating rate of downstream industries is expected to decline, and the profit margins remain low. The main downstream products, including styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, etc., have shown varying degrees of demand weakness [4][16][27] Inventory - Last week, the inventory at East China ports was 11.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. From the monthly data, the inventory is expected to accumulate from November to December, with the port inventory change showing an upward trend in some months [43][50] Valuation - The BZN spread is low, indicating a low valuation of pure benzene [43] External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been closed, but the overseas gasoline blending demand may provide some support. In different regions, the demand for pure benzene varies: in North America, chemical demand is weak but gasoline blending demand is good; in Western Europe, demand is weak; in Asia, supply is sufficient, and the consumption of three S products is weak [44][49] Styrene Supply - The supply of styrene in November is expected to decline due to a large number of maintenance activities. There were no new maintenance installations last week, and supply in November and December is expected to be low [54][58] - Many enterprises have carried out or planned maintenance, such as Zhenhai Liande Phase II, Satellite Petrochemical, etc. [56] Demand - The overall downstream demand has decreased, but the profit margins of downstream industries are relatively good. The consumption of downstream products such as ABS, EbS, etc., shows different trends in different months [6][72][93] Inventory - As of now, the inventory at East China ports has decreased to 17.48 million tons, and at South China ports to 2.1 million tons. With the reduction in overall supply, inventory is expected to continue to decline [91] Valuation - The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating a low valuation of styrene [6] External Market Support - In Western Europe, demand is weak, and in Asia, demand is also relatively weak [7]