年内资金面总体无大碍

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The overall liquidity situation for the year remains stable, with only minor fluctuations expected. The seasonal trends in funding rates align with historical patterns, particularly influenced by major shopping events like Double Eleven [2][3][13]. - The monetary policy stance has not changed, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. The central bank will continue to utilize various tools to maintain liquidity, although the implementation of more effective monetary policy tools may experience delays [3][19]. - The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity in November did not exceed seasonal norms, indicating that the monetary environment remains relatively stable [4][20]. - There is a push for supply-side reforms in small and medium-sized banks, which will require a supportive monetary environment to facilitate risk mitigation and governance improvements [5][25]. - The central bank may guide banks to increase credit issuance in Q4, despite a generally weak credit environment. This guidance is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and supporting weaker credit entities [5][26][30]. Summary by Sections Funding Rate Trends - November funding rates have shown a typical seasonal pattern, with the highest increase of 19 basis points compared to the beginning of the month, consistent with historical data [2][13][14]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy report for Q3 2025 emphasizes the need for both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining liquidity while addressing both short-term fluctuations and long-term goals [3][19]. Credit Issuance - The central bank's potential guidance for increased credit issuance in Q4 is based on the current weak credit conditions and the need to support market stability. The effectiveness of this guidance will depend on the actual credit issuance strength [5][26][30]. Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The focus on supply-side reforms for small and medium-sized banks highlights the importance of a favorable monetary environment to facilitate necessary changes and risk management [5][25].