塑料日报：震荡运行-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of cost, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply in the third quarter of 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of LDPE started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year was recently put into production. The plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable. After the National Day, the stocking demand decreased periodically, the downstream operating rate began to decline, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises was insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is still no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastics industry. Of course, anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,756 yuan per ton, the highest price was 6,820 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 6,818 yuan per ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.50%. The position volume decreased by 5,317 lots to 581,602 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan per ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan per ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,430 yuan per ton, and HDPE at 6,900 - 8,090 yuan per ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of November 7th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton compared to the previous period, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton compared to the previous period [4]