沥青日报：震荡下行-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing a downward trend with weak oscillations. The supply - demand relationship, crude oil price changes, and capital constraints are influencing the market. With the expected increase in production from some refineries and the weakening of subsequent demand, along with the decline in crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is showing a weak performance [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The national shipping volume decreased 6.79% to 308,800 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The subsequent demand will gradually weaken [1]. - Crude oil factor: OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the oversupply pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. - Market situation: The concentrated release of long - term low - price resources from refineries has weakened the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, and the spot price has followed the decline, resulting in a weak oscillation of asphalt futures prices [1]. 2.期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2999 yuan/ton, the highest was 3058 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4500 to 193,772 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 29 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - Supply side: Some refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongyou Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative [4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries dropped 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]