黑色金属日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern in the short term, with the demand outlook remaining pessimistic but the downside supported by moderately loose macro policies [2]. - Iron ore is predicted to oscillate mainly, as the market starts to trade the reality of a marginally looser fundamental situation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to show a moderately strong oscillatory trend, given the ample supply of carbon elements and the weakening downstream demand [4][5]. - Silicomanganese has strong support at the price bottom, despite the continuous decline in hot metal production and the slow accumulation of inventory [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall, considering the cost increase and the resilient overall demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market was mainly oscillatory, with thread steel slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil [2]. - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased slightly, production declined synchronously, and inventory continued to fall [2]. - The demand for hot-rolled coil stabilized, production continued to decline, and the pace of inventory accumulation slowed down [2]. - Hot metal production dropped from its high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb the output was insufficient [2]. - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall [2]. - Steel exports declined from their high level, and the overall domestic demand remained weak [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis has been relatively high recently [3]. - Globally, iron ore shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year, and the Simandou extension mine officially started production, but the short-term production capacity was limited [3]. - The domestic arrival volume remained at a high level for the same period, port inventory continued to increase, and there were some structural changes in Australian ore inventory [3]. - In the off-season, steel demand declined, steel mills' losses intensified, and there was room for further reduction in hot metal production [3]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated during the day, and the downstream's acceptance of the fourth round of price increases was poor [4]. - Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly [4]. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream buyers purchasing on a small scale as needed [4]. - Traders' purchasing willingness was average [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated during the day, and the daily import volume from Mongolia remained high [5]. - The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices [5]. - Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared to the previous period [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated during the day, and the first-round inquiry price from a large steel mill in the north was 5,750 yuan/ton, compared with the October tender price of 5,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Hot metal production continued to decline, and the weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [6]. - Silicomanganese inventory was slowly accumulating, and the Comilog's forward manganese ore quotation increased slightly compared to the previous period [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day, and hot metal production continued to decline [7]. - Export demand rose to around 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7]. - The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall demand remaining resilient [7]. - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].