PVC日报：震荡运行-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile conditions in the near term due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC production rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC production rate started to decline slightly and is still at a low level [1][4] - India postponed the BIS policy for six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton in August, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. Traders are starting to take a wait - and - see approach, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week [1] - From January to September 2025, the real - estate market was still in the adjustment phase. Investment, new construction, and completion areas showed significant year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction further decreased. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and was at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC production rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities, such as Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton - per - year plant, are in operation. There are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, and the elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity issues will affect future market trends [1] - The maintenance of production enterprises like Inner Mongolia Sanlian is about to end, the cost support is weakening, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the PVC futures price has fallen below the previous low, the market is sluggish, and social inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,560 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,590 yuan per ton, and it closed at 4,586 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.02% increase and a decrease in positions by 5,487 to 1,392,393 hands [2] - On November 13, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,515 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,586 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 71 yuan per ton, weakening by 5 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the output of plants such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Inner Mongolia Yili increased. The PVC production rate increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75% and remained at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton - per - year plant, have been put into production [4] - On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Various real - estate indicators such as sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 9, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 6, PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, 26.42% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory increased slightly and is still at a high level [6]