消息证伪，回归基本面

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].