原油日报：原油震荡下行-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will intensify the Q4 supply pressure but unexpectedly relieve the Q1 2026 supply pressure [1] - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil price cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory increased slightly [1][3] - The U.S. production of crude oil continued to reach a new historical high. The U.S. sanctioned two major Russian oil companies, which is expected to limit Russian crude oil exports. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil [1] - The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated, and the Ford Strike Group has reached the Caribbean Sea [1] - The consumption peak season has ended, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October decreased month - on - month and contracted for the eighth consecutive month. The market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and Middle - East exports are rising, resulting in a supply - surplus pattern [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 3.66% to 449.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 464.1 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4417 to 18,452 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report predicts that the global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - The OPEC monthly report adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day in 2026 to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively [3] - The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while it previously expected global oil demand to peak in 2030 [3] - EIA data on November 5th showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory for the week ending October 31st increased by 5.202 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 603,000 barrels and was 5.34% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.14 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 64,300 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 196,900 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4] - The U.S. crude oil production in the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The overall single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]