2026年A股策略展望：“小登”月时代，牛途仍在

Group 1 - The current bull market is in its second phase, transitioning from emotional drivers to fundamental factors, with a focus on technology as the main theme [1][11][19] - The bull market is characterized by a significant structural differentiation between "small-cap assets" and "large-cap assets," with "small-cap stocks" outperforming [30][21] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market, with specific attention on AI applications, robotics, smart driving, and AI programming [2][57][63] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bull market's main line is technology, with significant contributions from major tech companies, particularly in AI and related fields [2][57] - Historical bull markets have shown that the main line often correlates with industry cycles, where sectors with high revenue growth tend to outperform [58][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental recovery, with expectations of improved profitability and contract liabilities for listed companies [19][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that the market's valuation structure is healthy, with no signs of overheating, as evidenced by the current PB ratios being lower than in previous bull markets [21][25] - The differentiation in performance between "old economy stocks" and "new economy stocks" is notable, with "old economy stocks" lagging significantly behind [30][31] - The report suggests that the ongoing "deposit migration" trend may lead to increased investment in higher-yielding assets, further supporting market growth [35][39] Group 4 - The report outlines key policy directions for 2026, focusing on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reform to support economic growth [17][18] - The anticipated political volatility in the U.S. and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive capital flows into emerging market assets, including Chinese stocks [46][47] - The report notes that the AI industry is expected to see substantial growth, with projections indicating a market size of over $2.6 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in technology and increased investment [63][68]