银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the current laying - hen inventory remains at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. - Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited. - The recent decline in spot prices indicates that the short - term egg prices are likely to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3265, down 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3530, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, up 8. - Spread: 01 - 05 spread was - 265, down 44; 05 - 09 spread was - 348, down 21; 09 - 01 spread was 613, up 65. - Ratio: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.03; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.06, down 0.02. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per jin, unchanged. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some areas. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day [2][4][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Cost and Price: The average price of culled chickens was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan per chick, up 0.04. The average price of corn was 2260 yuan per ton, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3072 yuan per ton, unchanged. - Profit: The profit per chicken was 2.51 yuan, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Inventory: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, 10 million less than the previous month, 5.5% higher year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated laying - hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. - Sales and Production: From November 06, the weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7300 tons, down 4% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, 0.02 days less than the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, 0.04 days less than the previous week [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory will lead to a gentle de - capacity speed. The limited upward space of the contract price and the recent decline in spot prices suggest that short - term egg prices are likely to be weak with limited downward space [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8].