商业航天：可回收火箭将极大促进卫星组网

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and military industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The successful first flight of China's reusable rocket "Zhuque-3" is expected to significantly reduce the cost of satellite launches, targeting a cost of under 20,000 RMB per kilogram, comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9 [3][4] - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for China's commercial aerospace sector, with multiple key flight tests scheduled, potentially leading to a 30%-50% reduction in launch costs through the application of reusable technology [5][6] - The transition from expendable rockets to reusable launch vehicles is seen as a revolutionary change that will lower barriers to space access and enable new industries such as satellite internet and deep space exploration [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The first flight of the "Zhuque-3" rocket is scheduled for mid to late November 2025, emphasizing its reusable design aimed at enhancing lifespan and scalability [3] - A sea recovery system for reusable rockets is under construction in Hainan, expected to be operational by the end of 2026, providing public service for rocket recovery [3] Analysis and Judgment - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to be a high-potential area in the coming months, with the successful first flight of reusable rockets expected to address the major cost barrier in the industry [4] Reusable Rocket Development - 2025 is marked as the "verification year" for reusable technology in China, with several companies planning their first flights [5] - The successful implementation of reusable technology could lead to a significant reduction in launch costs, enhancing the competitiveness of the sector [5] Key Players and Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace is highlighted as a leading private rocket manufacturer in China, focusing on a full industry chain from research and development to launch services [9] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the successful testing of its rocket's propulsion system and plans for an IPO [10][11] Beneficiary Companies - Several companies are identified as beneficiaries of the commercial aerospace boom, including: - Putian Technology, involved in AI computing projects in space [12] - Holoway, a key player in satellite measurement technology [12] - Guoke Military Industry, transitioning to a comprehensive rocket engine manufacturer [14] - Shanghai Huanxun, involved in satellite communication systems [14] - Zhenray Technology, a supplier of core chips for satellite internet [15]