有色金属日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]