——2025年11月13日利率债观察：从两组关系理解10月的金融数据

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth of credit, M2, and social financing in October may not be as low as it seems. Considering the 'past - future' and'surface - intrinsic' relationships, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future growth of credit, M2, and social financing [1][2]. - The use of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments by the three policy banks is expected to drive total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan, which will support the growth of future financial data [1]. - The new policy - based financial instruments can effectively alleviate the problem of 'lack of project capital' and leverage large - scale credit demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Understanding October's Financial Data from Two Relationships - In October 2025, M1 balance increased by 6.2% year - on - year, remaining at a relatively high level in the past three years. New loans in October were 22 billion yuan, the increment of social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, and M2 balance increased by 8.2% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 'Past and Future' Relationship - The financial data in October only represents the past, and more attention should be paid to future data changes. The 500 - billion - yuan quota of new policy - based financial instruments has been fully used by the end of October, which is expected to drive project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [1]. - The new policy - based financial instruments can effectively solve the problem of 'lack of project capital' and leverage large - scale credit demand. There is no need to be pessimistic about the future growth of credit, M2, and social financing [2]. 3.3 'Surface and Intrinsic' Relationship - When analyzing financial data, attention should be paid to the intrinsic logic behind the data changes. In this stage, the impact of local government debt resolution and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions on credit should be fully restored [3]. - Local government debt resolution and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions may drag down the apparent growth of financial aggregates, but they are beneficial to economic growth and do not mean a reduction in the support of finance to the real economy [3].