Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. The high capacity utilization rate on the supply side and the expected launch of lithium mine projects suppress the long - term price, while the accelerated spot destocking and the resilient demand for new energy vehicles support the near - month contracts. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the negative feedback risk caused by the poor cost - pressure transmission of downstream cell enterprises, and the price fluctuations may widen due to intensified year - end capital games [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes: On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly by 40 yuan to 86,580 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened from - 4,540 yuan/ton to - 4,380 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased slightly by 2,473 lots to 529,000 lots, and the trading volume rebounded significantly by 26.9% to 1,145,000 lots [1] - Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On November 12, the price of spodumene concentrate rose by 130 yuan to 7,995 yuan/ton, with continuous cost - side pressure. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased to 75.34%. Coupled with the progress of the 50,000 - ton lithium carbonate project of Dazhong Mining's Jiada Lithium Mine, the medium - term supply increase expectation suppressed market sentiment [2] - Demand Side: In October, 1.4 million new energy vehicles were retailed, a year - on - year increase of 17%, driving the demand for power batteries. The prices of cathode materials were stable with a slight increase. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 245 yuan to 36,605 yuan/ton, but the cell prices remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [2] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks. On November 7, the inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared with October 31 to 124,000 tons, and the destocking speed accelerated [2] - Market Summary: In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback risk and price fluctuations [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the lithium carbonate main contract, basis, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase on November 12 compared with the previous day. The lithium mica concentrate market price remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of various types of cells remained stable [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - Spot Market Quotations: On November 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The market sentiment was high, and downstream material factories were cautious. The supply side had a high overall operating rate, and it was expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November would be roughly the same as that in October. The demand in the power and energy - storage markets was strong, and significant destocking of lithium carbonate was expected in November [6] - Downstream Consumption: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 31, the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market retail volume was 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume was 1.614 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 12.061 million, a year - on - year increase of 30% [7] - Industry News - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full capacity, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, marking a step closer to obtaining the mining license [9] - On October 23, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable. The cost - side pressure, supply - side capacity release, and demand - side cautious purchasing formed a hedging effect [9] - According to the National Market Regulatory Administration, China is about to enter the stage of large - scale retirement of power batteries. In 2024, the domestic power - battery recycling volume exceeded 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market scale of over 48 billion yuan. It is expected that the domestic market scale will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030 [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [13][16][18]
碳酸锂日报：矿端开复工预期反复，落地前锂价波动仍可能放大-20251113
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-13 12:16