国投期货能源日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The market is pessimistic about crude oil prices due to factors such as OPEC's adjustment of the balance sheet and increased US API crude oil inventories, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year [2] - Fuel oil prices follow the cost side down, while the low-sulfur market's fundamentals have improved, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized [2] - The decline of asphalt has slowed down, but the fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply and improved demand, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. OPEC's November report adjusted the balance sheet from shortage to balance, and last week's US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil monthly spread and spot premium/discount have weakened again, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year. Continuously monitor opportunities to short on price rebounds [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices followed the cost side down due to the pessimistic sentiment from OPEC's balance sheet adjustment. The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from supply risks caused by Russia's refinery capacity constraints, but increased Middle Eastern high-sulfur resources form a hedge [2] - The demand side is weak, with the end of the Middle Eastern power generation peak season, the easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and expected early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from supply pressure relief and support from the transfer production logic. The fundamentals have improved in the fourth quarter, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized, and it can be considered to take profits in a timely manner [2] Asphalt - The decline of asphalt has slowed down under the background of a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and the 2601 contract has certain support at 3000 yuan/ton [3] - The poor shipment volume has falsified the expectation of rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" closing year and released a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year [3] - Commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has expanded. Fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply of imported resources. Improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted downstream chemical plant operating rates, and cold weather has increased combustion demand [4] - Refinery and port storage rates have decreased, and the supply-demand relationship has tightened marginally, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4]