软商品日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but based on analysis, it's a wait - and - see situation [2] - Paper pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but expected to be weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, short - term expected to be strong [4] - Timber: Not clearly indicated, wait - and - see [7] - 20 - number rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Natural rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is weak with a risk of downward break - out. New cotton cost provides support, but demand is average, and price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian production data is neutral, and the domestic market may control syrup imports. The market focuses on the next season's output estimate, and sugar prices are expected to be weak [3] - Apple: Futures prices have risen significantly. Cold - storage inventory is down year - on - year, and short - term prices are strong. Long - term, de - stocking is the key point [4] - 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: Futures prices are rising, demand is slowly increasing, supply pressure is easing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] - Paper pulp: Futures prices are rising, inventory is decreasing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. It's advisable to hold long positions cautiously [6] - Timber: Futures prices are weak, supply may remain low, demand provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Price movement: Zhengzhou cotton is slightly down and weak, with a risk of downward break - out [2] - Cost and supply: New cotton cost is basically determined, with lower costs in northern Xinjiang. As of November 6, the national cumulative processed lint cotton is 319.3 million tons, up 59.5 million tons year - on - year [2] - Demand: The cotton yarn market is stable, with downstream mills buying as needed [2] - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Sugar - International market: Brazilian production data in the first half of October is neutral, and the production season is coming to an end [3] - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and there may be controls on syrup imports. The focus is on the next season's output estimate [3] - Strategy: Sugar prices are expected to be weak [3] Apple - Spot market: Acquisition in Shandong is nearing completion, and cold - storage trading has started in the northwest [4] - Inventory: As of November 13, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.3577 million tons, down 12% year - on - year [4] - Strategy: Short - term prices are strong, and long - term de - stocking is the key [4] 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - Price movement: Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are stable [5] - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate has increased slightly [5] - Demand: The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises has increased [5] - Inventory: The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has increased [5] - Strategy: There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Paper pulp - Price movement: Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are following [6] - Inventory: As of November 6, the inventory in mainstream ports is 2.008 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous period [6] - Market sentiment: There is a risk of a short squeeze, and it's advisable to hold long positions cautiously [6] Timber - Price movement: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable [7] - Supply: New Zealand's radiata pine price has increased, and domestic imports may remain low [7] - Demand: The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, providing support for prices [7] - Inventory: The total inventory is low, and inventory pressure is small [7] - Strategy: Wait and see [7]