Topsec(SZ:002212) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-13 13:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of RMB 13.09 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to project disturbances affecting Q3 revenue, with a revenue of RMB 1.20 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, down 24.01% YoY, and a net loss of RMB 235 million, an increase of RMB 66 million YoY [10]. - Despite the challenges, the company has a stable order book and an optimistic outlook for the year, with growth expected in the AI and cloud computing sectors [4][10]. - The intelligent cloud segment is emerging as a second growth curve, contributing RMB 129 million in revenue for the first three quarters, accounting for 10.73% of total revenue, with an expected annual growth rate of 10% [11]. - The company has made significant progress in quantum security and computing, launching products like quantum VPN and zero-trust solutions, which have gained recognition in key sectors such as government and finance [12]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 3,124 million, with a decline of 11.8% YoY, followed by an expected recovery to RMB 3,056 million in 2025, representing an 8.3% growth [3]. - The net profit for 2023 is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 371 million, with a turnaround expected in 2024 to a profit of RMB 83 million, and further growth to RMB 154 million by 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.31 RMB in 2023 to 0.13 RMB in 2025 [3]. Business Segmentation - The cybersecurity product revenue is expected to decline by 11% in 2024 but recover with an 8% growth in 2025 [6]. - The cloud computing business is projected to grow by 10% annually, with a revenue of RMB 255.64 million in 2024 [6]. - Other business segments are expected to see a significant increase, with a projected growth of 35% in 2024 [6].