策略日报：做多看支撑-20251113

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish stance with a focus on support levels in various markets, suggesting that investors should look for buying opportunities as long as key support levels hold [5][9][19]. - In the A-share market, the report identifies the ChiNext index as leading the gains, with support levels at 3070 points for ChiNext and 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5][19]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The report notes improved market sentiment, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, batteries, and chemicals leading the gains, while technology stocks are expected to show divergence based on earnings support [5][19]. - The report highlights that the technology sector's absorption rate has fallen below 25%, indicating a release of crowded positions, but suggests that time is still insufficient for a full recovery [19][23]. - The energy metals and battery sectors are noted as strong performers, while banks and oil & gas development sectors are lagging [19]. Group 3: U.S. Market Insights - The report indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has positively impacted U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index showing support at approximately 6630 points [6][25]. - The potential implementation of a $2000 subsidy for low-income individuals by the Trump administration is highlighted as a factor that could significantly stimulate the U.S. economy, although its feasibility remains uncertain [6][25]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Markets - The report states that the onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0964, reflecting a decline of 156 basis points, with expectations of a weaker dollar index in the short term [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.34%, with most sectors rising, except for a significant drop in the oil sector, suggesting a cautious approach to commodity investments [32].