10年地方债的稳健策略

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, analyzing the issuance rhythm, pricing, and trading characteristics in the primary and secondary markets [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 91.61 billion yuan, including 45.21 billion yuan of new special bonds and 12.73 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Revenue" is the main investment area for special bond funds [3][10] - As of now in November, special refinancing bonds have issued approximately 69.3 billion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the downward range of the 10 - year local bond issuance rate is greater than that of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties. The 10 - year local bond issuance rate has dropped by up to 6BP, and its spread with the same - maturity treasury bond has narrowed to 13.6BP, while the average issuance spreads of the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties have slightly widened compared to the previous week [3][16] - In November, Hubei, Yunnan, and Fujian are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years in Hubei reaches 9.25 billion yuan, and the average interest rate of Hubei's local government bonds with over 10 - year varieties accounting for nearly 90% reaches 2.31% [3][18] 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week (November 3 - 7, 2025), 7 - 10 - year local government bonds slightly outperformed the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, but the recent cumulative increase was weak. The 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bond indices increased by 0.09% and decreased by 0.03% respectively. The 7 - 10 - year variety's increase exceeded that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the over 10 - year variety was inferior to high - grade credit bonds, and the cumulative return was significantly lower than that of the same - maturity treasury bonds and credit bonds [4][21] - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places were relatively actively traded, while the trading maturity of each province was still below the level in mid - early October. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region are mostly between 1.9% and 2.25%, and the number of trading transactions in provinces with excess returns such as Hebei and Guizhou has decreased [4][23]