资产配置日报：一鼓作气-20251113

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.33% and a trading volume of 2.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The report highlights that the market is approaching a critical resistance level at 6385 points, where the accumulation of positions may lead to further upward momentum if the market breaks through this level [1] - The report notes that the pressure from loss-making positions near the previous high could pose a challenge to the current rally, indicating that a strong breakout would suggest a dominant bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the increasing focus on the energy storage sector, linking it to the demand for AI computing power, with a notable rise in the market's interest in energy storage business models and expanding demand in Europe and the US [2] - It mentions that the energy storage sector's congestion level has reached 6.45%, close to the high levels seen in 2022, indicating a heightened requirement for upward momentum in the market [2] - The report warns that while high congestion does not immediately signal a market correction, it suggests that the market's expectations for upward trends are increasing, and any deviation from these expectations could lead to significant adjustments [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index, driven by news related to Alibaba's "Thousand Questions" project, although it faced a notable pullback towards the end of the trading day [3] - It highlights that the southbound capital flow experienced a net outflow of 3.521 billion Hong Kong dollars, ending a streak of 16 consecutive days of net inflows, reflecting a tendency for profit-taking among investors [3] - The report suggests that the bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of risk assets, with long-term bond yields slightly rising as a result of the equity market's influence [4] Group 4 - The report notes that the commodity market sentiment has significantly improved, with precious metals and "anti-involution" themes showing strong performance, as gold and silver prices rose by 1.56% and 5.48%, respectively [6] - It mentions that there has been a substantial inflow of funds into the commodity market, with a net inflow of 4.8 billion yuan on the day, indicating a growing interest in precious and non-ferrous metals [6] - The report attributes the continued rise in precious metals to expectations of liquidity easing following personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the US dollar index [6] Group 5 - The report highlights the "anti-involution" theme gaining traction, particularly in the polysilicon sector, where market sentiment has improved following the denial of rumors regarding a storage platform by JA Solar [7] - It notes that lithium carbonate prices have reached a yearly high due to strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and energy storage, while supply-side uncertainties persist [7] - The report indicates that the black metal sector remains under pressure, with both production and demand showing signs of weakness, leading to a transition from peak season to off-peak characteristics [7]