格林大华期货早盘提示-20251114

Report Summary 1. Core Views - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [2] - The US investment - grade bond issuance scale has exceeded last year's $1.496 trillion, and the global bond issuance scale has exceeded $6 trillion for the first time this year [1] - The US sub - prime borrower auto - loan delinquency rate has reached a record high, and consumer spending is slowing down [1][2] 2. Key Information by Category Macroeconomic and Financial Information - Gold Market: Citigroup's latest gold outlook report predicts that the gold price may reach $6000 in a specific scenario, and US investors are the main force driving the gold price increase. In 2025, the net inflow of US gold ETFs accounts for 60.9% of the global total [1] - Federal Reserve Policy: New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed will assess when reserves are sufficient and then start gradually buying assets to maintain sufficient reserves [1] - US Data Center Power Demand: Morgan Stanley's report shows that the power demand of US data centers is rising sharply, and there will be a 44 - gigawatt power gap by 2028, equivalent to the power generation of 44 nuclear power plants [1][2] - AI Infrastructure Investment: Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in AI infrastructure in the US, and Microsoft's first "AI super - factory" has been put into operation [1] - Oil Market: OPEC's November report shows that the oil market will be slightly oversupplied in 2026 [1] - Bond Market: The issuance scale of US investment - grade bonds has exceeded last year, and the global bond issuance scale has reached over $6 trillion this year [1] - Auto - loan Delinquency: As of October, the proportion of US sub - prime borrower auto - loans overdue for more than 60 days reached 6.65%, the highest since 1994 [1] Global Economic Logic - US Government: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown [2] - AI Competition: NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Huawei's Achievements: Huawei announced "ten major inventions", demonstrating its strength in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - Stock Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [2] - AI Data Center Investment: Morgan Stanley estimates that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - Labor Shortage: There is a shortage of plumbers, HVAC contractors, mechanics, and electricians in the construction of US data centers [2] - Consumer Spending: US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been basically exhausted, and consumer spending is slowing down, especially among middle - income groups [2] - Corporate Layoffs: In October, the total number of US corporate layoffs was 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, an increase of 183% from September and almost three times that of the same period last year [2]