农业策略报：郑糖反弹，站回5500元/吨之上

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and Fats: Expected to be fluctuating upward, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing a bias towards strengthening [4]. - Protein Meals: Forecasted to have a fluctuating upward trend, including soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. - Corn and Starch: Anticipated to be fluctuating strongly in the short - term [6]. - Hogs: Predicted to be fluctuating weakly, with a "weak present + strong future" pattern [7]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to maintain a bottom - fluctuating and high - elasticity trend [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: Suggested to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - Cotton: Forecasted to have a short - term range - bound fluctuation and a long - term upward trend [13]. - Sugar: Expected to be fluctuating weakly in the medium - to - long - term and range - bound between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. - Pulp: Anticipated to be fluctuating, with a divergence between futures and spot markets [16]. - Double - Glued Paper: Forecasted to have a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible first - rising - then - falling trend [17]. - Logs: Expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, macro - environment, and industry policies. It provides short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook for Each Product - Oils and Fats: The market is affected by factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic soybean imports. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating upward, with different trends for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4]. - Protein Meals: Market expectations are that the supply - demand report will be bullish. With the US soybean harvest nearing completion and South American soybean sowing progressing smoothly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a fluctuating upward trend [5]. - Corn and Starch: The short - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and prices are expected to be fluctuating strongly. However, there may be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to new grain listings [6][7]. - Hogs: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term supply is large, but long - term supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [7]. - Natural Rubber: Driven by a strong macro - environment, rubber prices are rising. However, there may be downward pressure on prices without strong expectations or macro - driving forces [9][11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market is rebounding, but due to weak fundamentals and raw material pressure, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - Cotton: After the digestion of previous bullish factors, short - term upward momentum is weak. With increased supply expectations, prices may have a short - term correction, but the cost of new cotton provides support [13]. - Sugar: In the international and domestic markets, there is downward pressure on sugar prices in the medium - to - long - term due to expected supply surpluses. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. - Pulp: The futures market is driven by capital, while the spot market is affected by factors such as weak demand and supply pressure. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating [16]. - Double - Glued Paper: The market may show a first - rising - then - falling trend, with price rebounds in November and potential declines in December and the first quarter of 2026 [17]. - Logs: The market is affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand weakness, and inventory trends. Prices are expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 3.2 Key Information and Data - Sugar: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Sugar 01 contract closed at 5512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [1][13][15]. - Protein Meals: On November 12, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 238 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.06% from the previous day; US West soybeans at 225 cents/bushel, down 20 cents/bushel or 8.16%; South American soybeans at 220 cents/bushel, up 3 cents/bushel or 1.38%. On November 13, the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was - 70.4 yuan/ton, up 26.32 yuan/ton or - 27.21% from the previous day [4][5]. - Corn: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [6]. - Hogs: On November 13, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 11.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the live hog futures (active contract) was 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - Natural Rubber: On November 13, the RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of STR20 in the free trade zone was 1860, up 10 [9]. - Cotton: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract closed at 13490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The number of 24/25 annual warehouse receipts was 2220, down 15; the number of 25/26 annual warehouse receipts was 1960, up 311 [13]. - Pulp: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Pacific pulp was 5465 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of Silver Star pulp was 5565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [15]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - Macro - environment: The end of the US government shutdown, the release of US economic data, the Fed's monetary policy, and OPEC's adjustment of global oil demand forecasts all have an impact on the agricultural product market [4][9]. - Supply and demand: Supply factors include factors such as planting area, yield, and import volume; demand factors include factors such as consumption and inventory. For example, the expected increase in sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, and the new grain listing of corn all affect market supply; the consumption of soybean meal and the inventory of hogs affect market demand [1][4][5][6][7][13][15]. - Industry policies: Policies such as import policies for sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder, and the government's attention to hog production reduction all have an impact on the market [7][15].